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Roosevelt Institute for Politics releases analysis of March primary

A recent analysis of Illinois' March 18 primary election depicted the influence the close GOP gubernatorial race and a near no-contest for the Democratic nomination had on voter turnout.

In the GOP gubernatorial race - in which political newcomer Bruce Rauner prevailed over Hinsdale state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale), Bloomingdale state Sen. Bill Brady and Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford - 837,394 Illinoisans cast ballots, according to the study. The figure marks a 7 percent increase from the 783,060 Illinois residents who voted Republican in the 2010 primary.

In the Democratic race, incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn was considered a shoo-in against Tio Hardiman, the relatively unknown, former director of the CeaseFire anti-violence group. That being said, only 500,164 Democratic ballots were cast in March, a little more than half of the 959,521 Illinoisans who voted Democrat in 2010.

A couple interesting observations from Dr. Paul Green, director of the Institute for Politics:

* While Hardiman, by most, was not considered a serious opponent to Quinn, he did carry 30 of Illinois' 96 downstate counties. This could signal a dislike for Quinn among downstate voters, Green explained.

"I doubt if voters knew who [Hardiman] was, if they've ever even seen a picture of him," he said. "I think Quinn has a real problem in southern Illinois."

* Among voters in Chicago, the 30 suburban Cook County townships, the five Chicago collar counties and downstate counties, Rauner only failed to win the downstate-county sub-group. He received 30.5 percent of the vote there, while Dillard won 40.1 percent. This, Green said, was likely due to Rauner's anti-union stance, which led to many state employees - many of whom live in downstate Sangamon County - endorsing Dillard instead.

-Tom Butala