In an analysis released Tuesday, political analyst Dr. Paul Green called voter turnout and Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s success appealing to a broad range of voters deciding factors in the April mayoral runoff election. Green is the director of Roosevelt University’s Institute for Politics and emcee for the City Club of Chicago.
According to Green, Emanuel’s ability to drive high turnouts in the wards that supported him during the city’s first-ever mayoral runoff election was key to his victory. The mayor won all of the 12 wards in which more than 14,000 people voted on April 7. Green noted support for Emanuel was especially prevalent in lakefront and North Side areas, especially in city’s 43rd, 46th, 47th and 48th wards.
Turnout in many of the wards Garcia won during the runoff election was comparatively low. While turnout in the Hispanic-majority wards that supported Garcia increased from February to April, Green noted the “bottom 12 turnout wards were once again filled with many Hispanic majority wards.”
Green also explained that while some had predicted Garcia could “resurrect Harold Washington’s so-called multi-racial coalition,” it was actually Emanuel who succeeded in creating such a group of supporters. In fact, “Emanuel’s multi-racial vote appeal was far greater than Washington’s vote in the 1983 and 1987 Mayoral General Elections,” Green stated. He added, “It must be emphasized in blunt racial terms (an analysis I despise, but it does have importance here).”
Nonetheless, Green credited Garcia for a strong campaign as a clear underdog in the election. “Garcia put up a valiant fight – going toe-to-toe with Emanuel in the debates while overall demonstrating a pleasing personality,” he wrote, concluding, “In the end, Garcia was simply overmatched.”
-Tom Butala